With the BJP gaining ground in Karnataka, and parliamentary elections and some assembly by-elections staring them in the face, the Congress and the JD(S) are in a bind. They know that the only course to arrest the saffron surge is to join hands to prevent division of their common vote banks. But it is easier said than done. For, there is a mutual distrust between the two.
And with the JD(S) (read Deve Gowda) sailing in two boats - hobnobbing with the third front at the national level and at the same time trying to cozy up with the Congress in the state - the suspicion is compounded. Take the Congress. Its house is in a shambles. It lacks an inspiring leadership . Efforts at a revamp have drawn a blank. Choosing a party president has become tough. Too many aspirants , each with a different mindset, appealing only to certain communities, castes or regions. Very few have a vision - for the party, for the state, for the country . And with the JD(S) knocking on its doors for a tie-up , selection has become much more difficult.
Many contenders like Siddaramaiah and D K Shiva Kumar are staunchly anti-Gowda . They are firebrands, no doubt. They may even help in energizing the party. But they are sure to be dropped from the list, if a deal with the JD(S) comes through. In fact, Gowda will insist on it. Others in the queue are Chandre Gowda, R V Deshpande, Oscar Fernandes , Veerappa Moily, B L Shankar and B K Hariprasad. Only time will tell whether they will able to put the party back on the rails. Names of old guards S M Krishna and Jaffer Sharief are also doing the rounds. But they are highly disillusioned with state politics. They prefer doing their bit at the Centre.
The rank and file is confused. In the absence of an inspiring leadership, they are already drifting. A tie-up with the JD(S) means they will have to work with traditional rivals. The bitter experience during Dharam Singh's regime is fresh in their minds. To add to their worries is an insider vs outsider war. Old-timers feel that they have been sidelined to favour new entrants. Newcomers complain that the promises made to them at the time of admission to the party have been forgotten.
A bigger worry haunts the Congress bosses. Anti-Gowda men like Siddaramaiah may quit the party, along with a large number of followers, and join the BSP, whose supremo Mayawati is all set to head the third front. Can the Congress afford another formidable rival? Won't it cut into its vote banks? And some, who prefer to stay back, are certain to start dissident activity. Others in general will not like to take diktats from Gowda. The party thus has a tough task of choosing a leader who ensures not only a good equation with Gowda but also enthuses his own partymen. The only other option left is to go it alone.
The JD(S) is in a bigger dilemma. At the national level it has identified itself with the third front, which is anti-Congress and anti-BJP . But at the state level , it prefers a tie-up with the Congress, not just to give a tough fight to the BJP, but to gain lost ground. The party's credibility is low. Many senior leaders have walked out. Some are still sitting on the fence. But sailing in two boats isn't easy. For instance, if the third front decides to agitate against the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre over price rise, nuclear deal, etc, how will the JD(S) behave in the state?
Thanks to these complications, the BJP appears to be on a high. But it isn't keeping quiet. It is doing all to win over more rival cadres. It knows that it has to ensure the victory of all those MLAs who deserted either the Congress or the JD(S). It also needs to send a large contingent to the Lok Sabha to help the BJP return to power at the Centre. And corporation elections in Greater Bangalore are also due.
PARTING SHOT Like freebies, hollow promises unfair too Freebies offered to voters by political parties have come under the Supreme Court scanner. Copying such acts in other states, some parties in Karnataka had promised free colour TV sets and other luxury items during the recent elections. That voters didn't fall into their trap was welcome. What about promises like free power, rice at Rs 2 or Rs 3 per kilo? Although these might be part of the manifesto and parties may be well within their right to do so, aren't such blatantly unrealistic and brazenly populist pledges unfair too? Because more often than not, these turn out to be hollow commitments.